Maple Leaf Outsider

It's our goal ... to make the playoffs."

Brian Burke says Leafs built to make playoffs - Toronto Star, September 9th, 2009

After 47 games I think it's safe to say that this season isn't going the way anyone, most of all GM Brian Burke, thought it should.

I want you to think back to September.  I want you to remember how you felt about an overhauled roster that included the likes of Komisarek, Beauchemin, Kessel, Gustavsson and Orr.  I want you to remember how you felt after seeing the seventh overall draftpick Nazem Kadri and high-profile college signings Victor Stalberg and Tyler Bozak tear it up in the preseason.

I want you to remember how it felt when even Damien Cox (grudgingly) stated that the Leafs would make the playoffs.

I bet, like most of us in and around the Barilkosphere, you felt optimistic.  Cautiously optimistic to be sure, but still, optimism reigned in those heady days of early fall.

Then the season started, and this happened.

Games 1 to 10

Teams Played (in order): Montreal, Washington, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, NY Rangers, Colorado, NY Rangers, Vancouver, Anaheim, Dallas
*Red indicates the Leafs were the visiting team, underline indicates win, italic indicates OTL/SO Loss

Record: 1-7-2 (Home Record: 0-4-1, Away Record: 1-3-1)

Total Shots For: 327

Total Shots Against: 296

Outshoot Vs. Outshot Vs. Equal: 5-4-1

Goals Scored: 24

Goals Scored Against: 42

Leading Scorers: T. Kaberle (1G, 10A, 11P), N. Hagman (6G, 2A, 8P), M. Stajan (3G, 4A, 7P)

Power Play: 30.77% conversion rate (39 PP opportunities, 12 PPG Scored)
*Formula: Total PPG Scored / Total PP Opportunities = Conversion Rate

Penalty Kill: 63.41% (41 times shorthanded, 15 SH goals allowed)
*Fomula: (Total Times Shorthanded - PP Goals Against) / Total Times Shorthanded = Penalty Kill Percentage

Yes sir, cautious optimism took a beating for those first 10 games, that for sure.  But if earning four points out of a potential 20, while being outscored by 18 goals doesn't make for grim tidings, well sir, I don't know what does.

But, in a what would be cliche were this season a literary work, the team slowly started to get better, just when they looked to be at their worst.

Games 11 to 20

Teams Played (in order): Buffalo, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Calgary, Ottawa, Carolina
*Red indicates the Leafs were the visiting team, underline indicates win, italic indicates OTL/SO Loss

Record: 2-4-4 (Home Record: 1-2-1, Away Record: 1-2-3)

Total Shots For: 334

Total Shots Against: 324

Outshoot Vs. Outshot Vs. Equal: 5-5-0

Goals Scored: 28

Goals Scored Against: 33

Leading Scorers: T. Kaberle (1G, 10A, 11P), I. White (3G, 5A, 8P), P. Kessel (5G, 3A, 8P)

Power Play: 19.51% conversion rate (39 PP opportunities, 12 PPG Scored)
*Formula: Total PPG Scored / Total PP Opportunities = Conversion Rate

Penalty Kill: 80.95% (41 Times Shorthanded, 15 PP Goals Against)
*Fomula: (Total Times Shorthanded - PP Goals Against) / Total Times Shorthanded = Penalty Kill Percentage

I'm sure you're saying "But they were still losing!  What's to look up about here exactly?"

Well sir, to you I'd say that while they only earned just eight of a possible 20 points their penalty kill drastically improved and Phil Kessel started playing, which meant that they were only outscored by 5 goals for this set of games.  And as much as a 3-11-6 record looks ugly, there was progress being made, it was just incremental.

And what comes after a period of difficult to justify, incremental progress?  Well, in this case it was an unexpected rush of success coupled with a feelings of epiphany.

Games 21 to 30

Teams Played (in order): Washington, NY Islanders, Tampa Bay, Florida, Buffalo, Montreal, Columbus, Boston, Atlanta, NY Islanders
*Red indicates the Leafs were the visiting team, underline indicates win, italic indicates OTL/SO Loss

Record: 7-2-1 (Home Record: 4-1-0, Away Record: 3-1-1)

Total Shots For: 358

Total Shots Against: 296

Outshoot Vs. Outshot Vs. Equal: 8-1-1

Goals Scored: 33

Goals Scored Against: 29

Leading Scorers: N. Hagman (7G, 4A, 11P), M. Stajan (4G, 5A, 9P), A. Ponikarovsky (3G, 6A, 9P)

Power Play: 8.33% conversion rate ( 36 PP opportunities, 3 PPG Scored)
*Formula: Total PPG Scored / Total PP Opportunities = Conversion Rate

Penalty Kill: 68.75% (32 Times Shorthanded, 10 PP Goals Against)
*Fomula: (Total Times Shorthanded - PP Goals Against) / Total Times Shorthanded = Penalty Kill Percentage

And just like that, sir, the Leafs were hot (15 of 20 points earned), and it didn't matter that the power play and the penalty kill were in the tank.  Who cares about those special teams if the Leafs were winning?  Who cares that aside from Washington they weren't exactly beating the creme-de-la-creme?

I didn't, did you?  No, you probably did not.

But - with the Leafs there always seems to be a "but" - just as the team was beginning to play to the level expected of them the rest of the league caught on.

Remember the high from that rush of success, those epiphianic (sure, it's totally a word, you don't have to go looking anything up) feelings, that revelatory sense that this team could and would make the playoffs?

Well, just like that, they were gone.

Games 31 to 40

Teams Played (in order): Boston, Washington, Ottawa, Phoenix, Buffalo, Boston, Buffalo, NY Islanders, Montreal, Pittsburgh
*Red indicates the Leafs were the visiting team, underline indicates win, italic indicates OTL/SO Loss

Record: 3-4-2 (Home Record: 1-3-0, Away Record: 2-1-2)

Total Shots For: 336

Total Shots Against: 276

Outshoot Vs. Outshot Vs. Equal: 7-2-1

Goals Scored: 27

Goals Scored Against: 33

Leading Scorers: F. Beauchemin (2G, 5A, 7P), A. Ponikarovky (2G, 5A, 7P), M. Stajan (2G, 5A, 7P)

Power Play: 20.69% conversion rate (29 PP opportunities, 6 PPG Scored)
*Formula: Total PPG Scored / Total PP Opportunities = Conversion Rate

Penalty Kill: 73.08% (26 Times Shorthanded, 7 PP Goals Against)
*Fomula: (Total Times Shorthanded - PP Goals Against) / Total Times Shorthanded = Penalty Kill Percentage

And this, good sir, is where it gets confusing for folks like you and I, as neither of us can say with any certainty what, or who, this team really is?  Are they a hard working and resilient group who create late game heroics against Pittsburgh and dominate Washington?  Or are they the pillow-soft team that rolls over for the likes of Phoenix and Boston?

Unfortunately, their play of during this stretch, and into the next, makes them much more of the latter and only infrequently the former.

Games 41 to 47
Teams Played (in order): Edmonton, Calgary, Florida, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Carolina
*Red indicates the Leafs were the visiting team, underline indicates win, italic indicates OTL/SO Loss

Record: 1-6-0 (Home Record: 1-3-0, Away Record: 0-3-0)

Total Shots For: 249

Total Shots Against: 209

Outshoot Vs. Outshot Vs. Equal: 4-1-2

Goals Scored: 12

Goals Scored Against: 21

Leading Scorers: M. Stajan (2G, 3A, 5P), T. Kaberle (1G, 3A, 4P), N. Kulemin (2G, 2A, 4P), L. Stempniak (2G, 2A, 4P)

Power Play: 12.50% conversion rate (24 PP opportunities, 3 PPG Scored)
*Formula: Total PPG Scored / Total PP Opportunities = Conversion Rate

Penalty Kill: 45.45% (22 Times Shorthanded, 12 PP Goals Against)
*Fomula: (Total Times Shorthanded - PP Goals Against) / Total Times Shorthanded = Penalty Kill Percentage

Looking at the above its almost as if, halfway through the season, the Leafs are right back where they started.  They've lost six of seven, their special teams are atrocious, their goal differential is way up, and they've so completely fallen out of the playoff race that they must earn 53 points in their final 35 games to hit the 92 point plateau, which should be the low point for making the playoffs.

Does anyone realistically think they can do that anymore?  I don't.  This Leafs team can't be last years St. Louis Blues, not with their remaining schedule (Devils four times, Bruins and Flyers three times each).  I'd say it's even a stretch for them to appear to be in contention for a spot.

But what of that worst case scenario, the one where this team will finish in lottery position?  I sincerely hope they don't, but I have a sinking feeling they might.

Why?

This year the Leafs points percentage is 0.43, meaing they've earned 43% of the total available points.  Calculate that into the remaining 36 games and you get 29 points, for a projected total of 70 points.  I'd say that appearing to be in contention means staying within six points of a playoff spot - in this scenario that's 86 points.

For the Leafs to hit 86 points they'd need a winning percentage of 67%.  Now, there are 15 games between today and the March 3rd trade deadline.  If the Leafs don't go on an extended streak that translates to at least 70% of the available points (21 of 30) Burke pretty much has to be a seller at the deadline.  If he's a seller, looking at everything above, I can't a way this team avoids the lottery - unless he does the impossible (with what he has) and lands a legitimate #1 goalie and another top-three forward.

The Leafs are a far cry from where I thought they'd be come the mid-way point in the season, and they're probably a far cry from where Brian Burke thought they'd be too.  But I'm not particularly down about it, and neither should you be.  This isn't a team that was touted as a contender and blew a gasket - it's a team that was suppose to challenge for the playoff's and isn't.  Making the playoffs next year, with what's already in place, shouldn't be a a particularly large gap to bridge as long as Burke doesn't panic in the aftermath of this season.

So, while this season's cautious optimism has been thoroughly crushed, I'm not finding any legitimate reasons to rally a mob while brandishing my pitchfork and torch.

Yet.

Later Skaters,
Pamplemousse