Maple Leaf Outsider

Hello dear readers, or dare I say, friends?  Either way, welcome back.

This week, Maple Leaf Outsider will run the first installment of a six-part series called Path To The Playoffs.  In it, I'll be examining the Eastern Conference clubs that have made the post-season, post-lockout of course, and comparing them to the Maple Leafs in an attempt to figure out exactly why they've been missing out for the past four (going on five) seasons.

In the first four parts I'll be examining the team in its component parts - Goaltending, Defense, Bottom-Six forwards, and Top Six-Forwards.  The fifth installment will be dealing with Special Teams, and the sixth will be a summation of the strengths and weaknesses of this team, and my opinions on how to best move forward.

And so, without further delay, I present Path To The Playoffs, Part 1: Minding The Net




Goaltending.

Ask any Leaf fan -- literally, any Leaf fan -- and they'll tell you that the teams biggest post-lockout problem has been goaltending.  Or more accurately, a lack of quality goaltending.

But is that really true? Has the Leafs goaltending really been a weakness for the team, at least in comparison to the other Eastern Conference squads that ended up in the post season?

In short, yes. Yes it has.

Now, if you don't feel like reading on below and instead would like a specific example of just how bad it's been, here are averaged, basic statistics for all 32 teams that have made the playoffs since the 2005-2006 season.

	Starters	Backups	Platoons
Average Starts	60.13	18.85	37.31
Average GP	61.91	22.15	39.71
Average Wins	34.30	9.94	21.58
Average Losses	19.09	6.94	12.54
Average OT/SO Loses	6.58	2.25	3.29
Average Sv%	0.912%	0.903%	0.907%
Average GAA	2.58	2.83	2.66

And here are the Leafs stats for that same frame of time.

	Starters	Backups
Average Starts	59.75	13.67
Average GP	60.00	18.00
Average Wins	28.50	5.83
Average Losses	22.25	6.50
Average OT/SO Loses	28.50	2.00
Average Sv%	0.895%	0.891%
Average GAA	3.07	3.25

*A starter has at least 10 more Games Started and 10 more Games Played then the teams other goaltenders
*A backup is any goalie that doesn't qualify as a starter or a member of a platoon who either A) Played more than 10 games or B) was a team's only other goaltender
*A Platoon designates two goalies who split the majority of a team's starts with a difference of less than 10 between GP between them.

So, that alone really tells the story. But for the record, let's look at this season by season.

05/06 Playoff Goalies	Player	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Ottawa	Dominik Hasek	43	41	28	10	4	1202	90	2.09	1112	0.93
Ottawa	Ray Emery	39	38	23	11	4	1045	102	2.82	943	0.9
Ottawa	Michael Morrison	4	2	1	0	1	96	12	3.48	84	0.88
Carolina	Martin Gerber	60	53	38	14	6	1719	162	2.78	1557	0.91
Carolina	Cam Ward	28	25	14	8	2	773	91	3.68	682	0.88
New Jersey	Martin Brodeur	73	73	43	23	7	2105	187	2.57	1918	0.91
New Jersey	Scott Clemmensen	13	9	3	4	2	295	35	3.35	260	0.88
Buffalo	Ryan Miller	48	47	30	14	3	1440	124	2.6	1316	0.91
Buffalo	Martin Biron	35	29	21	8	3	980	93	2.89	887	0.91
Buffalo	Mika Noronen	4	3	1	2	0	77	12	4.26	65	0.84
Philadelphia	Antero Niittymaki	46	42	23	15	6	1266	133	2.97	1133	0.9
Philadelphia	Robert Esche	40	40	22	11	5	1099	113	2.97	986	0.9
NY Rangers	Henrik Lundqvist	53	49	30	12	9	1485	116	2.24	1369	0.92
NY Rangers	Kevin Weekes	32	32	14	14	3	867	91	2.95	776	0.9
NY Rangers	Chris Holt	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1
Montreal	Jose Theodore	38	37	17	15	5	1025	122	3.46	903	0.88
Montreal	Cristobal Huet	36	33	18	11	4	1085	77	2.2	1008	0.93
Montreal	David Aebischer	7	7	4	3	0	240	26	3.73	214	0.89
Montreal	Yann Danis	6	5	3	2	0	152	14	2.69	138	0.91
Tampa Bay	John Grahame	57	53	29	22	1	1450	161	3.06	1289	0.89
Tampa Bay	Sean Burke	35	27	14	10	4	764	80	2.8	684	0.9
Tampa Bay	Gerald Coleman	2	0	0	0	1	17	2	2.79	15	0.88
Tampa Bay	Brian Eklund	1	1	0	1	0	19	3	3.1	16	0.84

In the 05/06 season the Leafs finished in 9th place, and Ed Belfour was clearly their starter.  Other  starters on playoff bound teams included Martin Gerber (Car), Martin Brodeur (NYJ), Ryan Miller (Buf), Henrick Lundqvist (NYR) and John Grahme (TBL).  Platoons included Dominick Hasek & Ray Emery (Ott), Antero Nittymaki & Robert Esche (Phi) and Jose Theodore & Cristobel Huet (Mtl).

In that year, Belfour's 49 starts ranking him ahead of all platoon goalies but behind all starters except a young Ryan Miller.  His 22 wins ranked lower then every other starting goalie, and only better then the platoon goalies in Montreal.  His Sv% (.892) was lower than all starter or tandem goalies with the exception of Theodore and John Grahame.  His GAA (3.29) was better than only Theodore's.

Mikael Tellqvist's numbers are slightly better than Belfour's, and they don't suffer quite as much in the comparison, but they weren't particularly stellar by any means.

05/06 Leaf Goalies	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Ed Belfour	49	49	22	22	4	1476	159	3.29	1317	0.892
Mikael Tellqvist	25	22	10	11	2	697	73	3.13	624	0.895
Jean-Sebastien Aubin	11	11	9	0	2	330	25	2.22	305	0.924

06/07 Playoff Goalies	Player	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Buffalo	Ryan Miller	63	61	40	16	6	1886	168	2.73	1718	0.911
Buffalo	Ty Conklin	5	3	1	2	0	120	13	3.44	107	0.892
Buffalo	Martin Biron	19	18	12	4	1	533	54	3.04	479	0.899
New Jersey	Martin Brodeur	78	78	48	23	7	2182	171	2.18	2011	0.922
New Jersey	Scott Clemmensen	6	4	1	1	2	144	16	3.15	128	0.889
Atlanta	Kari Lehtonen	68	66	34	24	9	2075	183	2.79	1892	0.912
Atlanta	Johan Hedberg	21	16	9	4	2	500	51	2.89	449	0.898
Ottawa	Ray Emery	58	56	33	16	6	1691	138	2.47	1553	0.918
Ottawa	Martin Gerber	29	26	15	9	3	784	74	2.78	710	0.906
Pittsburgh	Marc-Andre Fleury	67	65	40	16	9	1954	184	2.83	1770	0.906
Pittsburgh	Jocelyn Thibault	22	17	7	8	2	572	52	2.83	520	0.909
NY Rangers	Henrik Lundqvist	70	69	37	22	8	1927	160	2.34	1767	0.917
NY Rangers	Kevin Weekes	14	12	4	6	2	355	43	3.39	312	0.879
NY Rangers	Steve Valiquette	3	1	1	2	0	45	6	3.13	39	0.867
Tampa Bay	Johan Holmqvist	48	43	27	15	3	1134	121	2.85	1013	0.893
Tampa Bay	Marc Denis	44	39	17	18	2	1068	125	3.19	943	0.883
Tampa Bay	Karri Ramo	2	0	0	0	0	23	4	3.43	19	0.826
NY Islanders	Rick Dipietro	62	62	32	19	9	1917	156	2.58	1761	0.919
NY Islanders	Mike Dunham	19	15	4	10	3	552	61	3.74	491	0.889
NY Islanders	Wade Dubielewicz	8	5	4	1	0	198	13	2.06	185	0.934

During the 06/07 race for 9th place (again), Leafs' faithful grew to know, and then hate, Andrew Raycroft. What's odd is that at very first blush the numbers don't look that terrible. His GAA was 2.99 - not great, but respectable - and he did rack up 37 wins. But then you start to dig in, and it the truth is revealed. He gave up more goals than any other goalie, by a pretty wide margin. Consider this - in 72 games Raycroft faced 1931 shots and gave up 205 goals, and in 62 games Rick Dipietro faced 1917 shots and gave up 156 goals. Hell, Brodeur and Clemmensen combined to allowed only 187 goals on 2326 shots.

So, while further analysis might not exactly bear this out, I'm going to go ahead and say that Andrew Raycroft cost us the playoffs that year.

06/07 Goalies	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Andrew Raycroft	72	71	37	25	9	1931	205	2.99	1726	0.894
Jean-Sebastien Aubin	20	10	3	5	2	371	46	3.43	325	0.876
Mikael Tellqvist	1	1	0	1	0	19	2	2.03	17	0.895

07/08 Playoff Goalies	Player	Cap Hit	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Montreal	Carey Price	1.882	41	40	24	12	3	1282	103	2.56	1179	0.92
Montreal	Jaroslav Halak	0.213	6	4	2	1	1	151	10	2.11	141	0.93
Montreal	Cristobal Huet	2.245	39	38	21	12	6	1150	97	2.55	1053	0.92
Pittsburg	Marc-Andre Fleury	1.295	35	33	19	10	2	909	72	2.33	837	0.92
Pittsburg	Ty Conklin	0.512	33	30	18	8	5	1013	78	2.51	935	0.92
Pittsburg	Dany Sabourin	0.326	24	19	10	9	1	596	57	2.75	539	0.9
Washington	Olie Kolzig	5.45	54	52	25	21	6	1423	153	2.91	1270	0.89
Washington	Cristobel Huet	0.63	13	13	11	2	0	329	21	1.63	308	0.94
Washington	Brent Johnson	0.812	19	17	7	8	2	500	46	2.67	454	0.91
New Jersey	Martin Brodeur	5.2	77	77	44	27	6	2089	168	2.17	1921	0.92
New Jersey	Kevin Weekes	0.688	9	5	2	2	1	160	17	2.97	143	0.89
NY Rangers	Henrik Lundqvist	4.25	72	72	37	24	10	1823	160	2.23	1663	0.91
NY Rangers	Steve Valiquette	0.618	13	10	5	3	3	296	25	2.19	271	0.92
Philadelphia	Martin Biron	3.5	62	59	30	20	9	1865	153	2.59	1712	0.92
Philadelphia	Antero Niittymaki	1.225	28	23	12	9	2	739	69	2.91	670	0.91
Ottawa	Martin Gerber	3.7	57	55	30	18	4	1619	145	2.72	1474	0.91
Ottawa	Ray Emery	3.167	31	26	12	13	4	800	88	3.13	712	0.89
Ottawa	Brian Elliott	0.06	1	1	1	0	0	29	1	1	28	0.97
Boston	Tim Thomas	1.1	57	55	28	19	6	1731	136	2.44	1595	0.92
Boston	Tuukka Rask	0.616	4	3	2	1	1	88	10	3.26	78	0.89
Boston	Manny Fernandez	4.333	4	4	2	2	0	95	16	3.93	79	0.83
Boston	Alex Auld	0.395	23	20	9	7	5	578	47	2.32	531	0.92

In 07/08 the Leafs were introduced to Vesa Toskala - a mercurial talent who, having never started more then 33 games a season in his career was brought in as our new starter.  Now, if you look at Toskala's year in comparison to the two previous Leaf starters you'd say "Hey, that's an improvement", and you'd be right.  He posted a Sv% of .904, a GAA under 2.77 and won slightly more then half his starts (64 starts, 33 wins).  However, he still allowed more goals then any of the playoff starters or tandems, which included Price, Huet, Fleury, Conklin, Kolzig, Brodeur, Lundqvist, Biron, Gerber & Thomas, and had a worse GAA and Sv% then all but Kolzig.

Now, in defense of Toskala, he was playing behind a (Paul Maurice coached) team that just didn't have the defensive horses to build on what was truly improved goaltending.

07/08 Goalies	Cap Hit	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Vesa Toskala	1.375	66	64	33	25	6	1824	175	2.74	1649	0.9
Andrew Raycroft	2	19	16	2	9	5	509	63	3.92	446	0.88
Scott Clemmensen	0.04	3	2	1	1	0	62	10	3.9	52	0.84

08/09 Playoff Goalies	Player	Cap Hit	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Boston	Tim Thomas	1.1	54	54	36	11	7	1694	114	2.1	1580	0.93
Boston	Manny Fernandez	4.333	28	27	16	8	3	791	71	2.59	720	0.91
Boston	Tuukka Rask	0.155	1	1	1	0	0	35	0	0	35	1
Washington	Jose Theodore	4.5	57	55	32	17	5	1572	157	2.87	1415	0.9
Washington	Brent Johnson	0.812	21	19	12	6	2	579	53	2.81	526	0.91
Washington	Semyon Varlamov	0.155	6	5	4	0	1	159	13	2.37	146	0.92
Washington	Michal Neuvirth	0.178	5	3	2	1	0	102	11	3	91	0.89
New Jersey	Scott Clemmensen	0.331	40	39	25	13	1	1138	94	2.39	1044	0.92
New Jersey	Martin Brodeur	5.2	31	30	19	9	3	870	73	2.41	797	0.92
New Jersey	Kevin Weekes	0.688	16	13	7	5	0	399	32	2.42	367	0.92
Pittsburgh	Marc-Andre Fleury	5	62	61	35	18	7	1850	162	2.67	1688	0.91
Pittsburgh	Dany Sabourin	0.276	19	16	6	8	2	463	47	2.85	416	0.9
Pittsburgh	John Curry	0.065	3	2	2	1	0	69	6	2.4	63	0.91
Pittsburgh	Mathieu Garon	0.509	4	3	2	1	0	94	10	2.91	84	0.89
Philadelphia	Martin Biron	3.5	55	53	29	19	5	1718	146	2.76	1572	0.92
Philadelphia	Antero Niittymaki	1.225	32	29	15	8	6	947	83	2.76	864	0.91
Carolina	Cam Ward	2.667	68	68	39	23	5	1901	160	2.44	1741	0.92
Carolina	Michael Leighton	0.6	19	14	6	7	2	507	50	2.92	457	0.9
NY Rangers	Henrik Lundqvist	6.875	70	70	38	25	7	2007	168	2.43	1839	0.92
NY Rangers	Steve Valiquette	0.725	15	12	5	5	2	421	39	2.84	382	0.91
Montreal	Carey Price	2.2	52	49	23	16	10	1513	143	2.83	1370	0.91
Montreal	Jaroslav Halak	0.775	34	33	18	14	1	1077	92	2.86	985	0.92
Montreal	Marc Denis	0.09	1	0	0	0	0	7	1	3	6	0.86

By 08/09 change was in the air, and expectations had been expertly played down interim GM Cliff Fletcher.  Of course, those were the expectations placed on the Leafs forwards and defence - not our finally average goaltending.  So when we were surprised by what the skaters could do, we were doubly surprised when Toskala posted Raycroftian type numbers.  Honestly, go read everything I just said about Raycroft in 06/07 and then apply it to Toskala in 08/09.  He.  Was.  Brutal.

08/09 Goalies	Cap Hit	GP	GS	W	L	O	SA	GA	GAA	Sv	Sv%
Vesa Toskala	4	53	53	22	17	11	1518	166	3.26	1352	0.891
Curtis Joseph	0.7	21	11	5	9	1	383	50	3.57	333	0.869
Justin Pogge	0.11	7	6	1	4	1	173	27	4.35		146	0.844
Martin Gerber	0.318	12	12	6	5	0	402	38	3.23	364	0.905

Just about the only bright spot in this entire mess is that the Leafs haven't been particularly overpaying for the "talent" they have.  Generally speaking, the top eight Eastern Conference teams have been spending an average of $4,634,860 a season in cap space on goaltending.

Now, that's an average, so bear in mind that the salaries of Lundqvist, Fleury and Brodeur are balanced out by the contracts of Tim Thomas and Cam Ward.

But in comparison the Leafs have spent $3.415 million and $5.128 million the last two seasons.  That's (really) roughly 7% and 10% of the cap, which is about what you want to spend on two players (9% of a 23 man roster).

Here's a fun fact for you - no Eastern Conference team that has gone to the finals post lockout has had a goalie start more then 61 games or earn more then $5 million in salary.  Just something to keep in mind.

In order for the Leafs to be successful, they're really going to have to shore up their situation in net.  The first step is to find a proven starter or a platoon that can post stats similar to the Eastern Conference averages for playoff teams that I posted at the beginning of this article.

The second, and last, step would be to do that for less $6,000,000 a year (or less) in cap space.

Now, please don't think I'm going to leave it at that.

Okay, for now I am, but in the final part of this series I'll be proposing a list of potential targets for the Leafs as they move forward towards competitiveness.


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I hope you've enjoyed Part 1 of Path To The Playoffs. While Part 2: Build De-Fence will be published in two weeks time, please check back next Wednesday for our regularly scheduled update.

Later Skaters,
Pamplemousse