Maple Leaf Outsider

I, and others, have noticed that a significant brouhaha has been brewing among Leaf fans over "Philthy" Phil Kessel's recent slump.  In case you hadn't noticed, after going a point-per-game in his first 15, Kessel has slowed down and notched just seven points in his last 15 games.

Anyhow, the gnashing of teeth over the loss of a potential lottery pick, the cursing of Brian Burke (in his first full year on the job) and the frequent Kessel smack-talk are, frankly, getting a little ridiculous - especially because no one seems to be providing any context or comparisons to players who can produce at a similar level.  So, I figured I'd do the heavy-lifting and provide some context and appropriate comparisons.

Defining a "Dry Spell"

As of Tuesday, January 5th at 3PM Phil Kessel has played 30 games as a member of the Maple Leafs.

In his first 15 games with the club Phil Kessel put up 15 points (10G, 5A).  He was held scoreless in five games, with only two of those games being consecutive.

In his last 15 games he's put up seven points (4G, 3A).  In that stretch he's been held scoreless in 10 games. 

Overall, Kessel has 22 points in 30 games, with 15 scoreless games.  Of those 15 scoreless games, the longest consecutive pointless streak was six games, which was concurrent with his longest goalless drought.

Fair Comparisons

As tempting as it is to compare Kessel to elite players like Ovechkin, Crosby, Thornton and Kovulchuck I just don't think it would make much sense.  Those players, for now, are in a league of their own when it comes to point production.  Now, I'm not saying Kessel can't be an elite guy at some point, but in three full NHL seasons he has yet to reach the heights those types of players have.  When he can consistently produce at or near a point-per-game pace he'll warrant those comparisons.  For now he gets put up against that next tier of guys.

Speaking of which, here's how I found that next tier of guys.

I pulled a list of all NHL forwards who've played this year and calculated all of their Points-Per-Game and Goals-Per-Game rates, including Kessel.  Then I sorted the list by PPG and eliminated all the players with a PPG that was half (or lower) that of Kessel's.  Then I sorted that list to remove all the players that had a GPG that was half (or less) of Kessel's.  Then I removed all the players who had been involved in less then 15 games - half the games Kessel has played.

That still left me with a pretty large list.  So, I whittled it down further to players within 0.10 (looking down) of Kessel's PPG and still below an 82 point pace at the top end.  Then I cut all the guys with a GPG 0.10 or more below Kessel's.

This process generated a list of 28 players, excluding Kessel, who produce goals and points at a rate comparable to Kessel.

Now, there are some odd-balls on this list, that's a given in any exercise like this.  There's also some very good players left off the list, which is also a given.  Consider that 0.10 below Kessel's 0.47 GPG is 0.37, and Jonathan Towes has a 0.36 GPG, thus he gets cut in an attempt to keep this manageable.  So, take this for what it is, and realize that the conclusions below can probably be applied to any player with a PPG lower then 0.90.

Player	GP	G	P	PPG	GPG
Teemu Selanne	27	14	21	0.78	0.52
Steven Stamkos	41	21	39	0.95	0.51
James Neal	37	18	34	0.92	0.49
Tomas Fleischmann	30	14	24	0.80	0.47
Phil Kessel	30	14	22	0.73	0.47
Ryan Malone	41	19	35	0.85	0.46
Michael Cammalleri	44	20	37	0.84	0.45
Dustin Penner	42	19	39	0.93	0.45
Bobby Ryan	42	19	34	0.81	0.45
Rick Nash	43	19	38	0.88	0.44
David Jones	23	10	16	0.70	0.43
Ryan Smyth	28	12	26	0.93	0.43
Stephen Weiss	42	18	38	0.90	0.43
Milan Hejduk	36	15	27	0.75	0.42
Loui Eriksson	41	17	40	0.98	0.41
Mike Richards	41	17	34	0.83	0.41
Danny Briere	34	14	25	0.74	0.41
Mason Raymond	42	17	30	0.71	0.40
Rene Bourque	35	14	34	0.97	0.40
Marian Hossa	20	8	18	0.90	0.40
Anze Kopitar	43	17	42	0.98	0.40
Brian Gionta	23	9	17	0.74	0.39
Niklas Hagman	41	16	26	0.63	0.39
Corey Perry	42	16	41	0.98	0.38
Martin Erat	37	14	27	0.73	0.38
Mike Fisher	40	15	32	0.80	0.38
Matt Moulson	43	16	28	0.65	0.37
John Tavares	43	16	28	0.65	0.37
Maxim Afinogenov	41	15	39	0.95	0.37

Decent company, I'd say.

Anyhow, here's a list of the significant pointless and goalless streaks of the above players.

Player	Pointless Streaks	Goalless Streaks
Teemu Selanne	4	3, 3, 3
Steven Stamkos	5	8, 5
James Neal	5, 3	6, 5, 4
Tomas Fleischmann	4	7, 5
Phil Kessel	6	6, 4, 3
Ryan Malone	3, 3	7, 5, 3
Michael Cammalleri	3, 3	6, 6, 4, 3
Dustin Penner	5	6, 3, 3, 3
Bobby Ryan	N/A	6, 3
Rick Nash	2, 2	6, 5, 4
David Jones	5, 3	6, 3, 3
Ryan Smyth	4, 3	6, 5, 3
Stephen Weiss	3, 3	5, 4, 4, 3, 3
Milan Hejduk	3, 3	3, 3, 3, 3
Loui Eriksson	3, 3, 3	12, 3, 3
Mike Richards	4, 3, 3	7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3
Danny Briere	4, 3, 3	9, 3, 3
Mason Raymond	5, 5, 3, 3	5, 5, 4, 3, 3, 3
Rene Bourque	3	4, 4, 4, 3
Marian Hossa	3	6, 4
Anze Kopitar	4, 3	13, 8
Brian Gionta	N/A	6
Niklas Hagman	9, 5, 4, 3, 3	8
Corey Perry	4	10, 7
Martin Erat	5, 5, 4, 3	11, 5, 5
Mike Fisher	N/A	9, 4
Matt Moulson	8, 4, 3, 3	10, 5, 4, 3, 3
John Tavares	5, 5, 4, 3	6, 5, 5, 4, 4
Maxim Afinogenov	5, 3	7, 4, 4

As you can see, it's not like Kessel is in any kind of unusual drought for a player who can score 25 to 40 goals and post 40 to 75 points a year.  If you really need some kind of proof after looking at those lists consider this - on a list of 29 players only five of them haven't experienced a 6 game goal-scoring slump, and only three haven't experienced a 5 game slump.

Or, if you like, last season Kessel had to goal-scoring slumps of 14 and 11 games and still managed to score 36 goals in 70 games.

What those who are panicking need to keep in mind is that it's only through the lens of this less-then-perfect season, and what Burke gave up in the trade, that makes this slump look like something remarkable when it's really anything but.

Bear in mind that Kessel is still on pace for 32 goals and 50 points in 69 games.  I'd say that's pretty remarkable in a season where he's missed training camp and returned from shoulder surgury to a team significantly worse then last years Bruins.

Oh, two quick questions for you before I wrap this up.  Firstly, who was the last Leaf to score 32 goals in a season, post lockout?  Secondly, what is the record for goals in a single season, by a Leaf, post lockout?

If you said Mats Sundin and 32 you'd be correct.

Later Skaters,
Pamplemousse